How’s the Market Inside the Beltline and North Hills in 2017?

As I said in the last post (http://blog.raleighhometeam.com/?p=31&preview=true), we watch the market for single family RESALE homes, and then we distinguish them by their price range – over or under $500,000.  Here’s what the market has done in these zip codes: 27607, 27608, and 27609 – the core expensive zips ITB and including the North Hills area.

There are some VERY surprising statistics through the 2nd quarter!!

*Overall, the number of sales in these 3 zip codes are DOWN – slightly down in 27607 (5.5%) and flat in 27608 & 27609

*Overall, prices are up 10% since 2016

*median DOM (Days on Market) are just under 30

27607

This zip encompasses some of the most popular more expensive neighborhoods – Budleigh, Coley Forest, Sunset Hills, University Park. It also includes Meredith Woods, which isn’t “ITB” but falls within the zip (and our MLS area that includes ITB). So, Meredith Woods can skew the data downwards – it’s a great neighborhood and has seen strong price increases, it just doesn’t have the cachet some folks seek.

27607 Overall <500K >500K
# Change # Change # Change
Avg Price $503,300 3.2% $360,050 8.2% $767,340    _____
# Of Sales 199 -5.5% 129 -4.4% 70 -6.7%
DOM-Avg 40           13 30    _____ 58           35
DOM-Median 13            1 6   ______ 25           19
$/sqft 201 7.5% 186 7.5% 229 8.0%
  • As I noted, home sales are actually DOWN in this zip – and down below and above $500K. The larger decrease was above $500K.
  • The lower range has great appreciation – 8% since 6/16. While the average price > $500K has been flat – look at the price/square foot.  Up 7.5% overall, and up 8% over $500K.  With a flat average price – we’re seeing smaller homes go for more!  
  • DOM continue to decrease – at 13 days now, anything under 2 weeks is astounding. And so the < $500K homes don’t even last a week, and the >$500K homes DOM has also dropped significantly – by almost 3 weeks to 25 DOM

27608

This zip is the only one we’re discussing that ONLY includes homes within the cozy confines of the Beltline, and some of the highest price/square foot homes in Raleigh.  Neighborhoods like Hayes Barton, parts of Budleigh, Five Points, and Fallon Park.

27608 Overall <500K >500K
# Change # Change # Change
Avg Price $619,700 -0.5% $371,900 3.7% $768,300 -3.4%
# Of Sales 208  _____ 78 -0.6% 130 0.2%
DOM-Avg 58           1 27          6 76            3
DOM-Median 21           5 8          1 37            3
$/sqft 247 3.8% 264 5.2% 238 3.9%
  • Not only was the # of home sold flat – the average price was slightly down! This was caused by slower growth in $/sqft above $500K (only 3.9%, yielding a DROP in average price).
  • It’s getting hard to FIND a home under $500K – sales were flat at 78, while almost 2x as many homes > $500K were sold.
  • Looking at all of the very small changes – be it quantity, price, DOM- the 27608 is a VERY steady market.

27609

This is where the action is at!   Although the 27609 zip code reaches far beyond the large lots and older homes of Drewry Hills & Country Club Hills, North Hills (and Lakemont for smaller homes) has really enjoyed a great year.  Some of North Hills information will be skewed since we’re not looking at new construction, which is abundant there in the teardown market. This may also show some resale price constriction, since builders are tearing down older homes.

27609 Overall <500K >500K
# Change # Change # Change
Avg Price $476,600 20.7% $323,200 7.5% $867,000 4.8
# Of Sales 383   _____ 275 -11.9% 108 58.8%
DOM-Avg 40            5 32              8 60          23
DOM-Median 11             4 8              2 28          36
$/sqft 179 11.2% 162 8.0% 220 5.3%

The average price is UP an astounding 21%! 

But since whether the homes are above or below $500K, appreciation was 7.5% or less – how does this happen…

The number of over $500K sales jumped by almost 60%, while < $500K dropped 12%.  Higher # of more expensive homes = higher average sales price.

Still, there’s been steady price growth on a $/sqft basis – up 8% for <$500K and up 5% over $500K. These would be your appreciation rates, not the 20% AVERAGE jump.

DOM actually INCREASED, but they’re still only 11 days – there was really nowhere to go but up. And when the market shifts to more expensive homes that always take a little longer to sell, the DOM will creep up. Still, look at the slash in DOM for >$500K homes – they were more than cut in half to just 28 days.

If you like the data and analysis, but want to know about a different zip code, or even get a closer look at your neighborhood, just drop me an email at Bo@BoBromhal.com and we’ll create the right report for you!

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